Do the Math: UAAP Edition

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With the Ateneo Blue Eagles closing their UAAP ealimination round campaign against the UST Growling Tigers tomorrow, I think it's better to post this Do the Math article now. The Blue Eagles have their eyes on the twice-to-beat advantage come the Final 4, and a win against the Tigers will give Ateneo that semifinal edge. However, that's not the only thing on the line come the final 3 playdays of the elimination round.

1. The PCCL Wildcard Slot

We all know that the college basketball calendar does not end at the NCAA and the UAAP. The Philippine Collegiate Champions League, where the best college teams in the country collide, will cap the colorful varsity hoopfest year. The Final 4 will get automatic slots to the Sweet 16, but the 5th and the 6th place teams can also make the cut if they survive the wildcard playoffs. While we can virtually say that UST and FEU are also in the semifinals, and either La Salle or NU will fall to one of the wildcard playoff slots, the race is on for the other PCCL qualifying berth. As it stands, UE will finish at 6th, but the Red Warriors are just a full game clear of 7th placers Adamson. UE and Adamson will collide tomorrow in what could be the PCCL wildcard berth decider. A win by the Warriors and they will finish 6th no matter what. But if the Soaring Falcons win, the fun begins. If they suffer different fates in their remaining game for each (UE vs. UST and Adamson vs. La Salle, both on Thursday), the one who would win will finish 6th. However, if both the Warriors and the Falcons have the same results (both teams win or both teams lose), the 6th placers will be decided by the head-to-head quotient system. UE currently has a +5 edge over Adamson, so if Adamson only won by at most 4 points, UE will still finish at 6th. If the Falcons blew the Warriors out, i.e., Adamson won by 6 or more, the Falcons will make the PCCL wildcard playoffs. If the Falcons won by exactly 5 points, it will be decided by the overall "goal difference". The team with the better point difference will take 6th, but that will depend on how both UE and Adamson will fare against UST and La Salle respectively. I'm now beginning to believe in UE.

2. The UAAP Final 4 Wildcard Slot

Speaking of La Salle, the Green Archers are currently tied with NU at 4th place with identical 7-5 cards. If they remain tied after their last two games (La Salle vs. FEU on Sunday and Adamson on Thursday; NU vs. UP on Sunday and FEU on the other Sunday), they will clash in a single-game showdown to determine the team that Ateneo will likely face in the semis as it stands. Anything different than that and the team with the better record wins the last Final 4 slot. One thing in common about the two: they will still face FEU. That's where the FEU-NU game that was nullified comes into play. If Ato Badolato's original ruling of counting RR Garcia's buzzer-beater, which was nullified by the UAAP board, was affirmed, NU would have been half-a-game behind La Salle, and the Bulldogs will need to beat the Fighting Maroons to still have a shot. I have NU to finish 4th.

Will UST crush Ateneo the 2nd time around?

3. Who Will Finish at Number 1?

Now, the other thing that comes to our minds regarding the order to replay the FEU-NU game is that how it will mix things up regarding the top 2 Final 4 slots, which will earn twice-to-beat edge. With the one win gone from FEU, the Tamaraws are currently tied with UST at 9-3. If Ateneo beats UST tomorrow, the Blue Eagles will finish at number 1. However, another UST shocker and Ateneo might fall into a possible best-of-3 2nd vs. 3rd semifinal battle. That's because there's a possibility that the three teams finish with identical 11-3 records. If that's the case, the team with the best quotient in their head-to-head will finish first. Currently, Ateneo holds the best quotient with a +18 (pending the Ateneo-UST result). FEU has a +7, while UST pending the Ateneo game, has a -25 quotient. Assuming FEU wins their next assignments, if UST wins by only 11 or less, Ateneo stays at number 1, but a UST win by 12 or more and the Blue Eagles slip to the 2 vs. 3 series. Although a tough climb, UST can still finish at number 1 if they beat Ateneo by at least 33 points. Any UST win with a final margin 11 and 32 points and FEU finishes at number 1. It's still Ateneo.

Do the Math: UAAP Edition Version 2.0

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Thanks to Almond Vosotros' hot night, we're in for the wildest UAAP playoff
race in years.

After the events that conspired today, it looks like we are in for a crazy finale in the 2012 UAAP Men's Basketball Tournament. With two more playdates remaining, the race for the last three spots in the semifinals, including the other twice-to-beat advantage, is still on. The FEU Tamaraws, UST Growling Tigers, De La Salle Green Archers, and the NU Bulldogs vie for the remaining three berths.

The Tamaraws and the Growling Tigers are currently tied for second at 9-4, just a full game clear of the Green Archers and the Bulldogs, who are tied at fourth place at 8-5. As it stands, i.e. if the season ends today, FEU and UST collide in a best-of-3 semis where the winner of Game 1, aka playoff for 2nd, gets the twice-to-beat, while La Salle and NU battle for the right to face Ateneo in the semis. But like I mentioned, we still have two more days and three games left in the schedule.

Here are the scenarios that could happen after September 23:

The quotients:

FEU vs. UST: FEU +28, UST -28

DLSU vs. NU: DLSU -9, NU +9

FEU vs. DLSU: FEU -5, DLSU +5

UST vs. NU: UST +7, NU -7

UST vs. DLSU: Both teams are tied on aggregate.

FEU vs. NU: FEU -4, NU +4 (They will play on September 23.)

1. FEU and UST only need a win or a La Salle or NU loss to make the Final 4 without going to the wildcard game. If they have different results, i.e. one team wins and the other loses, the team who would win will get the twice-to-beat edge. The team that would lose might slip to fourth place depending on the outcome of La Salle and NU's games. More on the third item. The same in the case of NU and La Salle. If one team wins and the other loses, the victors move on, while the others will be eliminated.

2. (a) If both the Tams and the Tigers win their last games (UST vs. UE on Thursday and FEU vs. NU on Sunday), they will go into a playoff for 2nd. Since they will just meet each other in the Final 4, the playoff will serve as Game 1 of a best-of-3 series. (b) If Adamson (vs. La Salle on Thursday) also wins, NU and La Salle will vie for the 4th spot. (c) Otherwise, La Salle will make the cut with ease.

3. The UAAP announced that only two tiebreakers will be played, the battle for 2nd aka Game 1 of a best-of-3 and the battle for 4th. In case of a tie for 3rd place, regardless of the number of teams tied for that spot, the team with the highest quotient will finish 3rd, while the 4th place will be disputed by the other teams (if it's a three-way logjam).
 a. If UST, Adamson, and NU win, UST will finish 2nd and NU and FEU will be tied for 3rd. However, due to head-to-head quotient, NU moves to 3rd and FEU slips to 4th.
 b. If FEU, UE, and La Salle win, UST and La Salle will be tied for third. However, since they are tied in the aggregate score (135-135), their total point margin for the season will be measured. Currently, UST has a +18 point difference, while La Salle has a +24 overall margin. It only means UST will slip to fourth and La Salle goes up to third.
 c. If UST, La Salle, and NU win, the Tigers finish 2nd and a three-way tie for 3rd between the others will happen. NU, with the highest quotient, finishes 3rd and FEU and La Salle battle one more time.

4. If in case of a three-way tie for 2nd, the team with the lowest quotient will be relegated to 4th, while the other 2 begin their best-of-3 2 vs. 3 semis battle. If UE, Adamson, and NU win, there will be a three-way tie for 2nd.
 a. In that case, for them to force a best-of-3 2 vs. 3 series, UST must hope for the impossible: that NU crushes FEU by 43 points or more, forcing UST vs. NU in the process.
 b. If NU wins by 42 or less, UST slips to fourth and it's FEU vs. NU in one semis showdown.

5. The wackiest case scenario is if UE beats UST, La Salle crushes Adamson, and NU whacks FEU. It will be translated to a four-way tie for 2nd. Currently, FEU has the best quotient among the four head-to-head wise with a +19. NU follows with a +6. La Salle has the third-best quotient with a -4. UST has the worst quotient with a -21.
 a. If a four-way tie at 9-5 happens, and if NU beats FEU by at least 23, it will be NU vs. La Salle in the best-of-3 semis and FEU vs. UST in the playoff for 4th.
 b. Otherwise, it's FEU vs. NU in the best-of-3 2 vs. 3 semis series, while it's UST vs. La Salle for the right to face Ateneo in the other Final 4 fixture with the Blue Eagles owning twice-to-beat edge.

Forecast: I have UST at 2nd and FEU at 3rd despite going through an extra game. I have NU at 4th, but NU clinches it through a playoff against La Salle.

Do the Math: UAAP Edition Version 3.0

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With Ateneo coach Norman Black's ill-advise entry to complain not issued a
technical foul as a solid ground, there's a possibility that the Ateneo-UST game
will be replayed, opening a chance for the Tigers to finish first.

Thanks to a comment from a concerned citizen, I made a third version of the computations regarding the wild Final 4 race. This time around, we'll take into consideration the scenario in which the UAAP Board overturns the initial ruling of Commissioner Ato Badolato to uphold Ateneo's 68-66 victory and orders a replay of the match that would be won by UST. If the board stands by Kume's side, we're gonna refer to OUR previous post (shout-outs to those who helped me in correcting my previous computations), but if in case the board orders a rematch and UST wins that game against Ateneo and (I hope I get this right this time)...

1. If UST (vs. UE), La Salle (vs. Adamson) and FEU (vs. NU) win, there will be a tie for 1st place between Ateneo and UST. With the quotient system favoring UST, the Tigers will be first and will battle La Salle in the Final 4. Ateneo will face FEU in the other semifinal clash.

2. If UST, Adamson, and FEU win, it's still Ateneo vs. FEU in the Final 4, but La Salle and NU collide in the battle for 4th with the winner facing UST next.

3. If UST, Adamson, and NU win, the Growling Tigers will finish at number 1. NU and FEU will be tied for 3rd with 9-5 records. However, the Bulldogs will finish third because of superior head-to-head quotient over the Tamaraws. So it's UST vs. FEU in one series and Ateneo vs. NU in the other.

4. If UST, La Salle, and NU win, UST will be first and Ateneo will be second, but a three-way tie for 3rd happens. NU, with the best quotient among them, La Salle and FEU, will battle Ateneo, while the other two engage in a playoff for 4th.

5. If UE, La Salle, and NU win, Ateneo will be first and UST falls to second. It's UST vs. NU in one Final 4 series, while it's Ateneo versus the winner of the FEU-La Salle wildcard game.

6. If UE, La Salle, and FEU win, it's Ateneo vs. La Salle in the UAAP Clasico Final 4, while it's FEU vs. UST in the other series.

7. If UE, Adamson, and FEU win, it's Ateneo vs. La Salle-NU winner in one semis and it's FEU vs. UST on the other.

8. If UE, Adamson, and NU win, it's Ateneo vs. FEU in one semis series and it's UST vs. NU on the other.

Forecast: Scenario 4!

Do The Math: NCAA Edition Powered by Asia Blooms Hotel

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Jett Vidal and the rest of the Perpetual Help Altas can still finish second in this
wild playoff race.

Just like the UAAP, the NCAA is heading to a wild finish this year as a possibility of a four-way tie for 2nd became imminent after the San Beda Red Lions' big win against Perpetual Help. While the Red Lions will cruise to the top seed in the Final 4, the Altas, San Sebastian Golden Stags, the Letran Knights, and the JRU Heavy Bombers are scrambling for the last three Final 4 berths, including the other twice-to-beat advantage.

1. Mapua vs. EAC for the PCCL Wildcard

Before we head to the main topic, there's another tiebreaker to be considered here. As it stands, the Mapua Cardinals, the EAC Generals, and the Arellano Chiefs are battling for sixth place, which translates to the last berth to the PCCL qualifiers. It's possible that a three-way tie for sixth at 7-11 will take place. However, Arellano, with the worst quotient among the three (-39), are eliminated from taking sixth. Their loss to CSB earlier was of no help. Now, it's the Cards and the Gens for sixth. Mapua owns the best quotient (+29 vs. EAC and +46 if you include Arellano), so a win against CSB on Saturday and they will finish sixth no matter what happens to EAC (-7 overall). But if EAC wins against JRU on Thursday and  CSB beats Mapua on Saturday, then it's EAC who will finish sixth.

2. Now, the Real Problem

Again, San Sebastian, Letran, JRU, and Perpetual Help could finish with identical 11-7 marks for a fatal 4-way for 2nd. Here are the quotients for each match-up:

SSC-R vs. CSJL: CSJL +21, SSC-R -21

SSC-R vs. UPHSD: SSC-R +15, UPHSD -15 (They will meet on Thursday)
SSC-R vs. JRU: SSC-R +15, JRU -15
CSJL vs. UPHSD: CSJL +2, UPHSD -2
CSJL vs. JRU: JRU +7, CSJL -7
UPHSD vs. JRU: UPHSD +11, JRU -11

a. If San Sebastian wins twice (vs. Perpetual Help on Thursday and vs. San Beda on Monday) and JRU and Letran (vs. Arellano on Saturday) win too, San Sebastian will finish second, Letran at third, and JRU at fourth. Perpetual Help will be relegated to the PCCL wildcard phase. It will be Baste vs. Letran in one semis battle, while it's San Beda vs. JRU in the other.

b. If San Sebastian wins twice and JRU and Arellano win too, it's San Sebastian vs. JRU and San Beda vs. Letran in the Final 4.

c. If San Sebastian wins twice and EAC wins too, regardless of what will happen in the Letran-Arellano game (San Sebastian will still meet Letran in the Final 4), Perpetual Help and JRU will clash for the last Final 4 seat on October 11.

d. If Perpetual Help wins, but San Sebastian wins vs. San Beda, and Letran and EAC win, JRU will be out of the Final 4 and it's San Beda vs. Perpetual Help in the 1 vs. 4 series. San Sebastian and Letran clash in a best-of-3 encounter for the other finals berth.

e. Otherwise, if Arellano wins, assuming all the other results remain, there will be a tie for 3rd between the Perps and the Knights, but Letran, with a better head-to-head quotient, will finish third. However, San Sebastian now gains twice-to-beat edge against the Knights.

f. If Perpetual Help, San Sebastian (vs. San Beda), Arellano, and JRU win, there will be a three-way tie for third between Letran, Perps, and JRU. Like in the case of the UAAP, the team with the best head-to-head quotient among the three will take third and the other clash in the wildcard playoff. The Altas (+9) leapfrogs to third and Letran (-5) and JRU (-4) collide for the last Final 4 seat.

g. The same scenario in (f) holds if San Sebastian wins vs. Perpetual Help but lost to San Beda and Arellano and JRU win.

h. If Perpetual Help, San Sebastian (vs. San Beda), Letran, and JRU win, it's San Sebastian vs. Letran in the best-of-3 2 vs. 3 Final 4 series, while it's Perpetual Help and JRU for the NCAA wildcard.

i. The same scenario in (g) holds if San Sebastian wins vs. Perpetual Help but lost to San Beda and if both Letran and EAC win.

j. If Perpetual Help, San Sebastian (vs. San Beda), Letran, and JRU win, it's Perpetual Help (who owns the tiebreaker) vs. San Sebastian in one series and it's San Beda vs. Letran in the other.

k. If San Sebastian beats Perpetual Help but lost to San Beda and Letran and JRU win, the scenario will be similar to (a), only that San Sebastian vs. Letran will be a best-of-3.

l. If Perpetual Help, San Beda, Arellano, and EAC win, the Altas, Knights, and Stags will tie for 2nd. The rule is that the team with the worst quotient slips to fourth and the other two will begin their bast-of-3 semis. Perpetual Help must beat San Sebastian by at least 6 points for the Altas to play Letran in the best-of-3 2 vs. 3 series.

m. If scenario (l) holds except that Perpetual Help won by only 5 points or less, scenario (d) holds, but the San Sebastian-Letran series will be a best-of-3.

n. If Perpetual Help (by 8 or more), San Beda, Letran, and Arellano win, Letran moves to second, Perpetual moves to third, and San Sebastian slips to 4th.

o. If Perpetual Help (by 7 or less), San Beda, Letran, and Arellano win, Letran moves to second, San Sebastian finish third, and Perpetual Help goes down to 4th.

p. If Perpetual Help, San Beda, Letran, and JRU win, Letran moves to second, but a three-way for third between Baste, Perps, and JRU takes place. The Golden Stags, with an overwhelming +30 in their head-to-head quotients, will take third and the Altas and the Bombers clash for 4th.

q. However, should the premise in (p) happens, the Perps (-4) can still take 3rd place, but that is if and only if they beat San Sebastian by 17 points or more.

r. The wildest case scenario: if Perpetual Help, San Beda, JRU, and Arellano win, we will have a four-way tie for 2nd. Currently, Letran has the best quotient among the four in head-to-head with a +16. San Sebastian follows with a +9. Perpetual Help has a -6 quotient. JRU holds the worst quotient with a -19. Assuming we have a four-way tie, as it stands, scenario (c) holds; it's just that San Sebastian vs. Letran will be a best-of-3.

s. Referring to the premise in scenario (r), Perpetual Help, however, can still make the Top 3, but that is if and only if they beat San Sebastian by 8 points or more.

Forecast: Scenario (r)!

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