Do The Math: NCAA Edition Powered by Asia Blooms Hotel

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Jett Vidal and the rest of the Perpetual Help Altas can still finish second in this
wild playoff race.

Just like the UAAP, the NCAA is heading to a wild finish this year as a possibility of a four-way tie for 2nd became imminent after the San Beda Red Lions' big win against Perpetual Help. While the Red Lions will cruise to the top seed in the Final 4, the Altas, San Sebastian Golden Stags, the Letran Knights, and the JRU Heavy Bombers are scrambling for the last three Final 4 berths, including the other twice-to-beat advantage.

1. Mapua vs. EAC for the PCCL Wildcard

Before we head to the main topic, there's another tiebreaker to be considered here. As it stands, the Mapua Cardinals, the EAC Generals, and the Arellano Chiefs are battling for sixth place, which translates to the last berth to the PCCL qualifiers. It's possible that a three-way tie for sixth at 7-11 will take place. However, Arellano, with the worst quotient among the three (-39), are eliminated from taking sixth. Their loss to CSB earlier was of no help. Now, it's the Cards and the Gens for sixth. Mapua owns the best quotient (+29 vs. EAC and +46 if you include Arellano), so a win against CSB on Saturday and they will finish sixth no matter what happens to EAC (-7 overall). But if EAC wins against JRU on Thursday and  CSB beats Mapua on Saturday, then it's EAC who will finish sixth.

2. Now, the Real Problem

Again, San Sebastian, Letran, JRU, and Perpetual Help could finish with identical 11-7 marks for a fatal 4-way for 2nd. Here are the quotients for each match-up:

SSC-R vs. CSJL: CSJL +21, SSC-R -21

SSC-R vs. UPHSD: SSC-R +15, UPHSD -15 (They will meet on Thursday)
SSC-R vs. JRU: SSC-R +15, JRU -15
CSJL vs. UPHSD: CSJL +2, UPHSD -2
CSJL vs. JRU: JRU +7, CSJL -7
UPHSD vs. JRU: UPHSD +11, JRU -11

a. If San Sebastian wins twice (vs. Perpetual Help on Thursday and vs. San Beda on Monday) and JRU and Letran (vs. Arellano on Saturday) win too, San Sebastian will finish second, Letran at third, and JRU at fourth. Perpetual Help will be relegated to the PCCL wildcard phase. It will be Baste vs. Letran in one semis battle, while it's San Beda vs. JRU in the other.

b. If San Sebastian wins twice and JRU and Arellano win too, it's San Sebastian vs. JRU and San Beda vs. Letran in the Final 4.

c. If San Sebastian wins twice and EAC wins too, regardless of what will happen in the Letran-Arellano game (San Sebastian will still meet Letran in the Final 4), Perpetual Help and JRU will clash for the last Final 4 seat on October 11.

d. If Perpetual Help wins, but San Sebastian wins vs. San Beda, and Letran and EAC win, JRU will be out of the Final 4 and it's San Beda vs. Perpetual Help in the 1 vs. 4 series. San Sebastian and Letran clash in a best-of-3 encounter for the other finals berth.

e. Otherwise, if Arellano wins, assuming all the other results remain, there will be a tie for 3rd between the Perps and the Knights, but Letran, with a better head-to-head quotient, will finish third. However, San Sebastian now gains twice-to-beat edge against the Knights.

f. If Perpetual Help, San Sebastian (vs. San Beda), Arellano, and JRU win, there will be a three-way tie for third between Letran, Perps, and JRU. Like in the case of the UAAP, the team with the best head-to-head quotient among the three will take third and the other clash in the wildcard playoff. The Altas (+9) leapfrogs to third and Letran (-5) and JRU (-4) collide for the last Final 4 seat.

g. The same scenario in (f) holds if San Sebastian wins vs. Perpetual Help but lost to San Beda and Arellano and JRU win.

h. If Perpetual Help, San Sebastian (vs. San Beda), Letran, and JRU win, it's San Sebastian vs. Letran in the best-of-3 2 vs. 3 Final 4 series, while it's Perpetual Help and JRU for the NCAA wildcard.

i. The same scenario in (g) holds if San Sebastian wins vs. Perpetual Help but lost to San Beda and if both Letran and EAC win.

j. If Perpetual Help, San Sebastian (vs. San Beda), Letran, and JRU win, it's Perpetual Help (who owns the tiebreaker) vs. San Sebastian in one series and it's San Beda vs. Letran in the other.

k. If San Sebastian beats Perpetual Help but lost to San Beda and Letran and JRU win, the scenario will be similar to (a), only that San Sebastian vs. Letran will be a best-of-3.

l. If Perpetual Help, San Beda, Arellano, and EAC win, the Altas, Knights, and Stags will tie for 2nd. The rule is that the team with the worst quotient slips to fourth and the other two will begin their bast-of-3 semis. Perpetual Help must beat San Sebastian by at least 6 points for the Altas to play Letran in the best-of-3 2 vs. 3 series.

m. If scenario (l) holds except that Perpetual Help won by only 5 points or less, scenario (d) holds, but the San Sebastian-Letran series will be a best-of-3.

n. If Perpetual Help (by 8 or more), San Beda, Letran, and Arellano win, Letran moves to second, Perpetual moves to third, and San Sebastian slips to 4th.

o. If Perpetual Help (by 7 or less), San Beda, Letran, and Arellano win, Letran moves to second, San Sebastian finish third, and Perpetual Help goes down to 4th.

p. If Perpetual Help, San Beda, Letran, and JRU win, Letran moves to second, but a three-way for third between Baste, Perps, and JRU takes place. The Golden Stags, with an overwhelming +30 in their head-to-head quotients, will take third and the Altas and the Bombers clash for 4th.

q. However, should the premise in (p) happens, the Perps (-4) can still take 3rd place, but that is if and only if they beat San Sebastian by 17 points or more.

r. The wildest case scenario: if Perpetual Help, San Beda, JRU, and Arellano win, we will have a four-way tie for 2nd. Currently, Letran has the best quotient among the four in head-to-head with a +16. San Sebastian follows with a +9. Perpetual Help has a -6 quotient. JRU holds the worst quotient with a -19. Assuming we have a four-way tie, as it stands, scenario (c) holds; it's just that San Sebastian vs. Letran will be a best-of-3.

s. Referring to the premise in scenario (r), Perpetual Help, however, can still make the Top 3, but that is if and only if they beat San Sebastian by 8 points or more.

Forecast: Scenario (r)!

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