Do the Math: UAAP Edition Version 2.0

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Thanks to Almond Vosotros' hot night, we're in for the wildest UAAP playoff
race in years.

After the events that conspired today, it looks like we are in for a crazy finale in the 2012 UAAP Men's Basketball Tournament. With two more playdates remaining, the race for the last three spots in the semifinals, including the other twice-to-beat advantage, is still on. The FEU Tamaraws, UST Growling Tigers, De La Salle Green Archers, and the NU Bulldogs vie for the remaining three berths.

The Tamaraws and the Growling Tigers are currently tied for second at 9-4, just a full game clear of the Green Archers and the Bulldogs, who are tied at fourth place at 8-5. As it stands, i.e. if the season ends today, FEU and UST collide in a best-of-3 semis where the winner of Game 1, aka playoff for 2nd, gets the twice-to-beat, while La Salle and NU battle for the right to face Ateneo in the semis. But like I mentioned, we still have two more days and three games left in the schedule.

Here are the scenarios that could happen after September 23:

The quotients:

FEU vs. UST: FEU +28, UST -28

DLSU vs. NU: DLSU -9, NU +9

FEU vs. DLSU: FEU -5, DLSU +5

UST vs. NU: UST +7, NU -7

UST vs. DLSU: Both teams are tied on aggregate.

FEU vs. NU: FEU -4, NU +4 (They will play on September 23.)

1. FEU and UST only need a win or a La Salle or NU loss to make the Final 4 without going to the wildcard game. If they have different results, i.e. one team wins and the other loses, the team who would win will get the twice-to-beat edge. The team that would lose might slip to fourth place depending on the outcome of La Salle and NU's games. More on the third item. The same in the case of NU and La Salle. If one team wins and the other loses, the victors move on, while the others will be eliminated.

2. (a) If both the Tams and the Tigers win their last games (UST vs. UE on Thursday and FEU vs. NU on Sunday), they will go into a playoff for 2nd. Since they will just meet each other in the Final 4, the playoff will serve as Game 1 of a best-of-3 series. (b) If Adamson (vs. La Salle on Thursday) also wins, NU and La Salle will vie for the 4th spot. (c) Otherwise, La Salle will make the cut with ease.

3. The UAAP announced that only two tiebreakers will be played, the battle for 2nd aka Game 1 of a best-of-3 and the battle for 4th. In case of a tie for 3rd place, regardless of the number of teams tied for that spot, the team with the highest quotient will finish 3rd, while the 4th place will be disputed by the other teams (if it's a three-way logjam).
 a. If UST, Adamson, and NU win, UST will finish 2nd and NU and FEU will be tied for 3rd. However, due to head-to-head quotient, NU moves to 3rd and FEU slips to 4th.
 b. If FEU, UE, and La Salle win, UST and La Salle will be tied for third. However, since they are tied in the aggregate score (135-135), their total point margin for the season will be measured. Currently, UST has a +18 point difference, while La Salle has a +24 overall margin. It only means UST will slip to fourth and La Salle goes up to third.
 c. If UST, La Salle, and NU win, the Tigers finish 2nd and a three-way tie for 3rd between the others will happen. NU, with the highest quotient, finishes 3rd and FEU and La Salle battle one more time.

4. If in case of a three-way tie for 2nd, the team with the lowest quotient will be relegated to 4th, while the other 2 begin their best-of-3 2 vs. 3 semis battle. If UE, Adamson, and NU win, there will be a three-way tie for 2nd.
 a. In that case, for them to force a best-of-3 2 vs. 3 series, UST must hope for the impossible: that NU crushes FEU by 43 points or more, forcing UST vs. NU in the process.
 b. If NU wins by 42 or less, UST slips to fourth and it's FEU vs. NU in one semis showdown.

5. The wackiest case scenario is if UE beats UST, La Salle crushes Adamson, and NU whacks FEU. It will be translated to a four-way tie for 2nd. Currently, FEU has the best quotient among the four head-to-head wise with a +19. NU follows with a +6. La Salle has the third-best quotient with a -4. UST has the worst quotient with a -21.
 a. If a four-way tie at 9-5 happens, and if NU beats FEU by at least 23, it will be NU vs. La Salle in the best-of-3 semis and FEU vs. UST in the playoff for 4th.
 b. Otherwise, it's FEU vs. NU in the best-of-3 2 vs. 3 semis series, while it's UST vs. La Salle for the right to face Ateneo in the other Final 4 fixture with the Blue Eagles owning twice-to-beat edge.

Forecast: I have UST at 2nd and FEU at 3rd despite going through an extra game. I have NU at 4th, but NU clinches it through a playoff against La Salle.