Do the Math: UAAP Edition

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With the Ateneo Blue Eagles closing their UAAP ealimination round campaign against the UST Growling Tigers tomorrow, I think it's better to post this Do the Math article now. The Blue Eagles have their eyes on the twice-to-beat advantage come the Final 4, and a win against the Tigers will give Ateneo that semifinal edge. However, that's not the only thing on the line come the final 3 playdays of the elimination round.

1. The PCCL Wildcard Slot

We all know that the college basketball calendar does not end at the NCAA and the UAAP. The Philippine Collegiate Champions League, where the best college teams in the country collide, will cap the colorful varsity hoopfest year. The Final 4 will get automatic slots to the Sweet 16, but the 5th and the 6th place teams can also make the cut if they survive the wildcard playoffs. While we can virtually say that UST and FEU are also in the semifinals, and either La Salle or NU will fall to one of the wildcard playoff slots, the race is on for the other PCCL qualifying berth. As it stands, UE will finish at 6th, but the Red Warriors are just a full game clear of 7th placers Adamson. UE and Adamson will collide tomorrow in what could be the PCCL wildcard berth decider. A win by the Warriors and they will finish 6th no matter what. But if the Soaring Falcons win, the fun begins. If they suffer different fates in their remaining game for each (UE vs. UST and Adamson vs. La Salle, both on Thursday), the one who would win will finish 6th. However, if both the Warriors and the Falcons have the same results (both teams win or both teams lose), the 6th placers will be decided by the head-to-head quotient system. UE currently has a +5 edge over Adamson, so if Adamson only won by at most 4 points, UE will still finish at 6th. If the Falcons blew the Warriors out, i.e., Adamson won by 6 or more, the Falcons will make the PCCL wildcard playoffs. If the Falcons won by exactly 5 points, it will be decided by the overall "goal difference". The team with the better point difference will take 6th, but that will depend on how both UE and Adamson will fare against UST and La Salle respectively. I'm now beginning to believe in UE.

2. The UAAP Final 4 Wildcard Slot

Speaking of La Salle, the Green Archers are currently tied with NU at 4th place with identical 7-5 cards. If they remain tied after their last two games (La Salle vs. FEU on Sunday and Adamson on Thursday; NU vs. UP on Sunday and FEU on the other Sunday), they will clash in a single-game showdown to determine the team that Ateneo will likely face in the semis as it stands. Anything different than that and the team with the better record wins the last Final 4 slot. One thing in common about the two: they will still face FEU. That's where the FEU-NU game that was nullified comes into play. If Ato Badolato's original ruling of counting RR Garcia's buzzer-beater, which was nullified by the UAAP board, was affirmed, NU would have been half-a-game behind La Salle, and the Bulldogs will need to beat the Fighting Maroons to still have a shot. I have NU to finish 4th.

Will UST crush Ateneo the 2nd time around?

3. Who Will Finish at Number 1?

Now, the other thing that comes to our minds regarding the order to replay the FEU-NU game is that how it will mix things up regarding the top 2 Final 4 slots, which will earn twice-to-beat edge. With the one win gone from FEU, the Tamaraws are currently tied with UST at 9-3. If Ateneo beats UST tomorrow, the Blue Eagles will finish at number 1. However, another UST shocker and Ateneo might fall into a possible best-of-3 2nd vs. 3rd semifinal battle. That's because there's a possibility that the three teams finish with identical 11-3 records. If that's the case, the team with the best quotient in their head-to-head will finish first. Currently, Ateneo holds the best quotient with a +18 (pending the Ateneo-UST result). FEU has a +7, while UST pending the Ateneo game, has a -25 quotient. Assuming FEU wins their next assignments, if UST wins by only 11 or less, Ateneo stays at number 1, but a UST win by 12 or more and the Blue Eagles slip to the 2 vs. 3 series. Although a tough climb, UST can still finish at number 1 if they beat Ateneo by at least 33 points. Any UST win with a final margin 11 and 32 points and FEU finishes at number 1. It's still Ateneo.